Stocks for the Rest of Us
Posts tagged XTO
Pairs Trading: Why Running A Balanced Book Can Be Beneficial
Dec 5th
I didn’t realize it at the time but I was actually initiating a pairs trade when I recommended going long UNG and short XTO. A pairs trade is simply going long something and short something against it as a hedge. I really was bullish on Nat Gas and the move below $5 is amazing, however, by shorting XTO we’ve hedged our long position in the UNG and the losses we sustained in the UNG trade were more then made up for with the XTO trade. I always employ stop losses so I’m no longer long UNG and I continue to be short XTO. As Dennis Gartman always says “Do more of what’s working and less of what isn’t”. Pairs trading allows you to do just that.
XTO Short. Natural Gas Looks Good But The Equities Look Ripe For A Selloff
Nov 28th
While I do like natural gas as a long I think the equities could be overbought. Take a look at XTO. This thing is bumping up on the upper band of a downtrending channel and has already failed to rally while the market was up today. Furthermore, the stock is getting up into the range of the previous bottom where all the would be bottom pickers are waiting to unload as the stock comes back up into the range where they bought it. I call that the “dear god please let me out range”. In addition to that the Force Index is reading slightly overbought and is peaking in a range which in the past has proved to be a short term top. I think you can short this thing right here with a stop at yesterday’s high or slightly above it.
XTO short
Wall Street Sell Off Ends Badly
Sep 15th
The selloff today ended terribly. Usually those washout gap down openings lead to a higher close but not this time. This is an indication that investors are starting to realize the magnitude of “the great unwind” as Bob Marcin over on real money likes to call it. At this point if you’re fully invested you have no choice but to ride out this storm and maybe buy some downside protection on the next bounce. It’s pretty clear that we are not out of the woods yet or even close to being out of the woods. I would continue selling the rallies. Having said that, wall street will recover, it always does. For me, it’s not a matter of catching the bottom, it’s much more important to protect my capital and ride the trends. The pundits on TV have been calling the bottom since March and it simply just hasn’t worked. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing. That’s what I did today. Not a single thing. I’m 60% invested in my retirement account and about 10% invested in my trading account, it’s been this way since December. It’s been hard resisting the temptation to do something but there just isn’t enough clarity to make me feel comfortable putting my capital to work. Sure I’ve missed some big rallies but I’ve also missed a whole lot of downside. If we get a few more bad days ahead of us we’ll be setting up for a nice big bounce that could last for several days or even weeks. I’ll be looking to pick at some of the global growth stuff such as infrastructure and energy. I like COP, XTO, JEC, SGR, NUE, and RIO.